My blog post ticker has me sitting at three YTD so I will need to start cranking out more posts to hit my goal of 52 this year.
11/ the health care sector will start to feel the pressure of real patient centered healthcare brought on by the trifecta of the smartphone becoming the EMR, patients treating patients (p2p medicine), and real market economies entering health care (people paying for their own healthcare). this is a megatrend that will take decades to fully play out but we will see the start of it in 2015.
Let’s unpack this:
the health care sector will start to feel the pressure of real patient centered healthcare
According to a FICO survey, 80% of smartphone users want to interact with their provider online. I certainty agree with Fred’s prediction here and believe we are already seeing the entire healthcare industry react to increased patient demand for digital health services.
brought on by the trifecta of the smartphone becoming the EMR
I see the trend of the EMR moving into patients’ hands playing out over the next 10 years as new ways to verify identity over the Internet become more mainstream, such as block chain. Patients will come to expect to own their online profiles and the data associated with them.
patients treating patients (p2p medicine)
Fred mentions these are megatrends that will take years to play out. I think this one is the farthest off (10+ years) because clinical judgement is deeply engrained in our healthcare system in order to ensure clinical quality and patient safety. Over the next five years, I think it is more likely that we will see software tools that will make clinical judgement more accessible to patients. With that said, I have seen examples of patients with rare conditions diagnosing and treating themselves because clinical judgement is lacking.
and real market economies entering health care (people paying for their own healthcare)
We have seen direct-to-consumer markets (where providers accept payment outside of insurance directly from patients) forming over the last decade with retail care and more recently with virtual care and concierge services. I imagine Bitcoin and other peer-to-peer payment models will also drive down the cost for providers to offer these services. This is definitely a megatrend driven by patients taking on the burden of their healthcare costs and reimbursement models shifting from fee-for-service to value-based.
Overall, I think Fred is on track with his predictions. The two megatrends I am most excited about over the next 3-5 years are patient centered care (brought on by patient demand for digital health services) and new market economies forming (brought on by patients taking on the burden of their healthcare costs and the transition from fee-for-service to value-based reimbursement).